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XRP started the week breaking out and ended Thursday below $1.50. Over the same period, US spot XRP ETFs took in close to $40 million. How both happened at once explains most of the move.
On Thursday, September 24, the token traded near $1.50, down roughly 4% on the day and about 10% below Wednesday's high of $1.66. Cumulative net inflows into spot XRP ETFs reached about $1.75 billion.
Timeline: From Warning to Reversal
Before the breakout. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez singled out $1.60 as the level where sellers were likely to appear. On-chain data showed around 2.5 billion XRP had previously traded near that price. "That's the next major level I'm watching for potential profit-taking," he said.
Tuesday, September 22. Spot XRP ETFs added roughly $20 million in net inflows as the rally built.
Wednesday, September 23. XRP cleared $1.60 and peaked near $1.66. ETFs drew another $18.04 million, with Bitwise contributing $11.54 million and Franklin Templeton about $6.50 million. FXEmpire analyst Alejandro Arrieche noted selling pressure building above $1.50 and pointed to a possible pullback toward $1.43.
Thursday, September 24. The breakout failed. XRP fell back under $1.60, then under $1.50, as Bitcoin slid below $85,000 and rising Treasury yields weighed on risk assets.
Why Didn't ETF Buying Hold the Price?
The answer is scale. At $1.50, Wednesday's $18.04 million in fund purchases works out to about 12 million XRP. Two much larger pools of supply were sitting against it:
- The $1.60 cost-basis cluster: about 2.5 billion XRP whose holders could exit near breakeven
- Binance reserves: about 2.68 billion XRP, according to FXStreet analyst John Isige
"Higher exchange reserves suggest investors are moving tokens to the exchange to trade or sell and lock in profits amid higher prices," Isige wrote.
Tokens sitting on an exchange are not necessarily being sold. Still, supply that can reach the order book within minutes is more than 200 times the daily ETF bid. On a day when holders want out, fund inflows slow the drop without stopping it.
What Turned a Breakout Into a Trap?
A price level becomes support only after it survives a retest. XRP spent only a few hours above $1.60 and never held it on a pullback. That left buyers who entered on the breakout with losing positions almost immediately, and many of them sold, adding to the selling from long-term holders already cashing out at their cost basis.
Where Does XRP Go From Here?
Attention has moved from $1.60 to the $1.43 to $1.45 zone that Arrieche flagged. He still described a retreat there as likely temporary.
| Scenario | Trigger | What it would signal |
|---|---|---|
| Healthy reset | XRP holds $1.43 to $1.45 and ETF inflows continue | Rally intact, with $1.60 still the level to reclaim |
| Failed rally | Daily close below $1.43 with Binance reserves still rising | Profit-taking has overpowered institutional demand |
Three things will show which scenario is playing out: the next few days of ETF flow data, whether Binance reserves keep growing, and whether Bitcoin gets back above $85,000.
